Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.74891e-06          25          71           4           0           0        B3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.12627e-05           8          77          15           0           0        B5.7
GOES Xray  =   1.54180e-07           1           6          81          12           0        C2.9
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            11.50       53.00       31.75        3.75        0.00     B6.3
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7