Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.02936e-06          40          57           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.21324e-06          25          73           1           1           0        B2.1
GOES Xray  =   1.34924e-07           1           8          79          12           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            20.50       50.50       25.00        4.00        0.00     B3.6
 
realized                                                                                      B7.1