Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.68150e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.68628e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   4.86371e-08           8          83           8           1           0        B5.3
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            32.75       54.50       11.00        1.75        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B4.3