Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.78940e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.05545e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.08409e-08          43          57           0           0           0        B1.2
est. ISN   =            19          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            43.50       49.00        6.75        0.75        0.00     B1.2
 
realized                                                                                      B1.1