Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.77983e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.59505e-06          23          73           3           1           0        B2.3
GOES Xray  =   6.46275e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.9
est. ISN   =            28           7          54          32           7           0        B6.3
 
together                            23.00       60.50       14.25        2.25        0.00     B3.8
 
realized                                                                                      B5.0