Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.13008e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.54619e-06          51          47           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   6.71798e-08           6          69          24           1           0        B7.0
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                            30.00       53.50       15.25        1.25        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      B5.1