Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.69645e-06          48          49           3           0           0        B1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.55049e-06          23          73           3           1           0        B2.3
GOES Xray  =   1.07877e-07           2          24          71           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            26           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                            20.00       49.75       27.75        2.50        0.00     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      B8.4