Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.50561e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.24025e-06          52          46           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.66100e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B4.0
est. ISN   =            34           7          47          35          11           0        B8.9
 
together                            31.25       56.25        9.75        2.75        0.00     B2.7
 
realized                                                                                      B3.1