Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.04615e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.46761e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.63061e-08          13          87           0           0           0        B2.8
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                            34.25       55.25        9.50        1.00        0.00     B2.0
 
realized                                                                                      B2.1