Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.29939e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.47139e-06          51          47           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   6.13340e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            32.25       56.75       10.00        1.00        0.00     B2.2
 
realized                                                                                      B2.8