Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.40025e-05           2          22          69           7           0        C2.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.19418e-05           1           3          73          23           0        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   2.34949e-07           1           1          60          33           5        C6.7
est. ISN   =            12          21          58          19           2           0        B2.9
 
together                             6.00       21.25       55.25       16.25        1.25     C2.6
 
realized                                                                                      C4.2