Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.83847e-05           1           8          78          12           1        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.33341e-05           2           2          76          20           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   2.69179e-07           1           0          35          53          11        M1.6
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                             5.50       18.25       51.75       21.50        3.00     C3.3
 
realized                                                                                      M1.4