Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.02277e-05           2          35          59           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.00662e-05           1           5          77          17           0        C3.0
GOES Xray  =   2.33846e-07           1           2          59          34           4        C6.7
est. ISN   =            26           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                             2.25       24.25       57.25       15.25        1.00     C2.2
 
realized                                                                                      C6.0