Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.71513e-05           1          11          79           8           1        C2.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.31233e-05           2           3          74          21           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   3.00455e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =            46           4          24          61           8           3        C1.8
 
together                             1.50        9.75       61.25       23.25        4.25     C3.6
 
realized                                                                                      C8.1