Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.31677e-05           5          26          64           5           0        C1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.59710e-05           1           8          80          11           0        C2.7
GOES Xray  =   1.73765e-07           1           4          82          13           0        C3.2
est. ISN   =            66           3           7          70          19           1        C3.2
 
together                             2.50       11.25       74.00       12.00        0.25     C2.6
 
realized                                                                                      C6.3