Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.21890e-05          10          70          20           0           0        B5.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.63607e-05           5          45          44           6           0        C1.0
GOES Xray  =   1.44099e-07           1           5          81          13           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =            72           1           5          54          36           4        C7.0
 
together                             4.25       31.25       49.75       13.75        1.00     C1.6
 
realized                                                                                      C3.7