Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.07349e-05           3          33          59           5           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.68798e-05           2           7          79          11           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   2.47422e-07           1           0          40          50           9        M1.1
est. ISN   =            72           1           5          54          36           4        C7.0
 
together                             1.75       11.25       58.00       25.50        3.50     C3.9
 
realized                                                                                      M1.8