Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.09837e-05           5          31          59           5           0        C1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.81258e-05           2           7          82           8           1        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   2.52934e-07           1           0          46          42          11        M1.0
est. ISN   =            91           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             2.25        9.50       65.25       18.75        4.25     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3