Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.21255e-05          11          70          19           0           0        B5.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.86891e-05           3          31          60           6           0        C1.3
GOES Xray  =   1.94406e-07           1           1          75          22           1        C4.0
est. ISN   =            87           1           0          66          28           5        C6.0
 
together                             3.50       25.75       55.25       14.00        1.50     C2.0
 
realized                                                                                      C2.6