Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.15058e-05           1           1          68          27           3        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.25407e-05           1           1          43          41          14        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.37404e-07           1           1          56          36           6        C7.8
est. ISN   =            68           1           8          67          23           1        C3.8
 
together                             0.50        3.25       58.50       31.75        6.00     C6.7
 
realized                                                                                      C7.4