Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.48395e-05          12          55          31           2           0        B7.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.04807e-05           4          25          66           5           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.98676e-07           1           0          74          23           2        C4.5
est. ISN   =            58           3          18          65          13           1        C2.9
 
together                             4.75       24.75       59.00       10.75        0.75     C1.8
 
realized                                                                                      C3.2