Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.72304e-06          14          74          11           1           0        B4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.42195e-05           3          59          36           2           0        B8.7
GOES Xray  =   1.77872e-07           1           0          85          13           1        C3.4
est. ISN   =            65           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                             5.50       35.75       48.75        9.25        0.75     C1.3
 
realized                                                                                      C2.2