Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.38345e-05           1           3          74          21           1        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.85966e-05           1           1          71          25           2        C4.8
GOES Xray  =   2.63220e-07           1           0          36          54           9        M1.6
est. ISN   =            61           3          15          61          19           2        C3.7
 
together                             1.25        4.75       60.75       29.75        3.50     C5.3
 
realized                                                                                      M1.8