Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.46438e-06          18          76           5           1           0        B3.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.38081e-05           3          54          40           3           0        B8.9
GOES Xray  =   1.24602e-07           1          11          81           7           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =            52           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                             5.75       39.75       47.75        6.50        0.25     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C4.6