Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.03244e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.83667e-06          20          76           3           1           0        B2.8
GOES Xray  =   9.27819e-08           1          35          64           0           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =            42           5          36          52           5           2        C1.3
 
together                            20.25       47.75       30.00        1.50        0.50     B5.3
 
realized                                                                                      B8.3