Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.22541e-05           1           4          76          19           0        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.84275e-05           2           7          83           7           1        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   2.13584e-07           1           1          68          27           3        C5.4
est. ISN   =            37           6          49          35          10           0        B8.3
 
together                             2.50       15.25       65.50       15.75        1.00     C3.0
 
realized                                                                                      C9.8