Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.11369e-05           5          29          61           5           0        C1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.71849e-05           2           8          79          10           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   2.33767e-07           1           2          59          34           4        C6.7
est. ISN   =            64           4          11          58          25           2        C3.6
 
together                             2.75       12.75       64.25       18.50        1.75     C3.0
 
realized                                                                                      M3.8