Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.96695e-05           3          34          59           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.65737e-05           2           7          78          12           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   2.65435e-07           1           0          37          53           9        M1.6
est. ISN   =           110           1           0          57          35           7        C8.3
 
together                             1.25       10.25       58.25       26.00        4.25     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C2.7