Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.32900e-05          12          65          21           2           0        B6.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.96099e-05           5          30          60           5           0        C1.3
GOES Xray  =   1.76783e-07           1           2          87          10           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =            44           4          28          60           7           1        C1.5
 
together                             5.50       31.25       57.00        6.00        0.25     C1.4
 
realized                                                                                      C5.7