Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.68702e-05           1           2          77          20           0        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.97912e-05           1           0          69          29           1        C6.0
GOES Xray  =   2.34290e-07           1           1          61          32           5        C6.7
est. ISN   =            80           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             0.50        1.75       68.25       27.00        2.50     C5.6
 
realized                                                                                      M2.7