Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.33023e-05           1           1          61          30           7        C6.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.42253e-05           1           1          62          33           3        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   2.43950e-07           1           0          39          52           8        M1.2
est. ISN   =            95           1           0          70          24           5        C5.6
 
together                             0.25        1.25       58.00       34.75        5.75     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      M5.1