Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.15532e-05           1           0          37          48          14        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.22267e-05           1           1          42          41          15        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.52380e-07           1           0          44          45          10        M1.1
est. ISN   =            91           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             0.75        0.25       49.50       38.50       11.00     C9.9
 
realized                                                                                      M9.0