Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.47086e-05           1           0          49          45           5        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.15968e-05           1           2          38          47          12        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.75984e-07           1           0          31          55          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =            67           1           7          68          23           1        C3.9
 
together                             0.50        2.50       46.75       42.50        7.75     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C7.9