Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.27479e-05           1           1          66          26           6        C6.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.32338e-05           1           4          55          37           3        C8.0
GOES Xray  =   2.65759e-07           1           0          36          54           9        M1.6
est. ISN   =            31           5          47          40           8           0        B9.8
 
together                             1.50       13.25       49.50       31.25        4.50     C6.3
 
realized                                                                                      X6.3