Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.70509e-05           1           4          50          42           3        C8.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.74166e-05           1           0          39          50          10        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.38658e-07           1           1          48          43           7        M1.0
est. ISN   =            64           4          11          58          25           2        C3.6
 
together                             1.25        4.25       49.00       40.00        5.50     C8.5
 
realized                                                                                      M2.6