Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.42013e-05          14          58          26           2           0        B7.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.84339e-05           5          34          56           5           0        C1.2
GOES Xray  =   2.10273e-07           1           0          71          25           3        C4.7
est. ISN   =            73           1           6          54          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             5.25       24.50       51.75       16.75        1.75     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C3.4