Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.40416e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.92934e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.2
GOES Xray  =   1.47704e-07           1           5          80          14           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =            65           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                            15.00       37.50       38.00        9.00        0.50     B7.9
 
realized                                                                                      C2.4