Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.43565e-05           2          19          73           6           0        C2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.15993e-05           1           4          72          23           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   2.46651e-07           1           0          41          49           9        M1.1
est. ISN   =            53           1          17          63          18           1        C2.5
 
together                             1.25       10.00       62.25       24.00        2.50     C3.7
 
realized                                                                                      C3.9