Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.25476e-05           1           1          69          23           6        C6.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.55993e-05           1           0          52          40           7        C9.5
GOES Xray  =   2.48078e-07           1           0          40          50           9        M1.2
est. ISN   =            35           6          54          30          10           0        B7.6
 
together                             1.75       14.25       47.75       30.75        5.50     C6.3
 
realized                                                                                      M3.5