Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.00035e-05           1           0          47          41          11        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.65472e-05           1           0          48          43           8        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   2.95896e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =            99           1           1          67          26           5        C6.1
 
together                             0.25        0.50       48.50       41.50        9.25     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      M2.7