Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.66092e-05           1           2          79          17           1        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.24322e-05           1           4          56          37           2        C7.5
GOES Xray  =   2.73824e-07           1           0          32          57          10        M1.7
est. ISN   =           101           1           1          67          26           5        C5.5
 
together                             0.50        2.00       58.75       34.25        4.50     C7.0
 
realized                                                                                      M4.4