Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.01896e-05           1           4          62          31           2        C5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.18308e-05           1           3          55          39           2        C7.9
GOES Xray  =   2.44488e-07           1           0          41          51           7        M1.1
est. ISN   =            86           1           0          61          32           6        C7.0
 
together                             0.50        2.25       54.75       38.25        4.25     C8.3
 
realized                                                                                      M1.9