Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.76338e-05           2           2          76          20           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.21094e-05           1           4          54          39           2        C7.9
GOES Xray  =   2.09485e-07           1           0          71          25           3        C4.7
est. ISN   =            67           1           7          68          23           1        C3.9
 
together                             1.25        3.25       67.25       26.75        1.50     C5.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1