Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.33711e-05          12          65          21           2           0        B6.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.93438e-05           5          29          63           3           0        C1.3
GOES Xray  =   1.58414e-07           1           5          79          15           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =            47           4          23          62           9           2        C1.9
 
together                             5.25       30.75       56.25        7.25        0.50     C1.4
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8