Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.20832e-06          21          74           4           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.06162e-05          12          75          13           0           0        B4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.18081e-07           1          17          76           6           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =            46           4          24          61           8           3        C1.8
 
together                             9.50       47.50       38.50        3.75        0.75     B8.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6