Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.38230e-05           1           0          44          42          13        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.39028e-05           1           2          58          36           3        C8.0
GOES Xray  =   2.45281e-07           1           1          39          51           8        M1.1
est. ISN   =            53           1          17          63          18           1        C2.5
 
together                             0.75        5.00       51.25       36.75        6.25     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      M5.4