Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.07021e-05           1           2          81          16           0        C3.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.76798e-05           1           2          70          25           2        C4.6
GOES Xray  =   2.53493e-07           1           0          46          42          11        M1.1
est. ISN   =           137           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.75        1.00       62.25       31.00        5.00     C6.5
 
realized                                                                                      C7.5