Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.74999e-05           1           4          51          41           3        C8.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.04285e-05           1           2          37          47          13        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.73917e-07           1           0          32          57          10        M1.7
est. ISN   =           133           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.50        1.50       43.25       46.50        8.25     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      M3.4