Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.18998e-05           1           3          78          18           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.91581e-05           1           0          68          30           1        C6.1
GOES Xray  =   2.60008e-07           1           0          41          50           8        M1.3
est. ISN   =            80           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             0.75        1.50       63.25       31.25        3.25     C6.3
 
realized                                                                                      C6.6