Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.05016e-05           1           3          82          14           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.03927e-05           1           1          64          31           3        C6.4
GOES Xray  =   2.15081e-07           1           1          67          28           3        C5.4
est. ISN   =            79           1           4          65          26           4        C5.0
 
together                             0.75        2.50       69.50       24.75        2.50     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      M2.7